A recent GEMMES Vietnam report shows that if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise, the temperature in Vietnam could reach 4.18±1.57°C.
The report was made by more than 60 researchers from two countries, Vietnam and France, in the context that Vietnam is one of the countries most affected by climate change. Assoc. Prof. Dr. Ngo Duc Thanh, Hanoi University of Science and Technology, a scientist involved in the development of the report, said that GEMMES researchers used the latest data set from the Climate Research program. world to establish Vietnam climate model under some climate policy scenarios. The scientists proposed two climate scenarios: Paris Agreement compliance (RCP2.6) and a continuing high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5). Accordingly, future climate change depends on the joint efforts of countries to radically reduce greenhouse gas emissions, in line with the Paris Agreement.
In Vietnam, the average temperature is expected to increase by 1.13±0.87°C by the middle of the 21st century (compared with the period 1986 – 2005) under the scenario with a sharp reduction in greenhouse gases. If greenhouse gas emissions continue to be high (scenario RCP8.5), the temperature increase could reach 1.9±0.81°C. The end-of-century temperature projections are strongly dependent on greenhouse gas scenarios, with the increase being limited to 1.34±1.14°C under the RCP2.6 scenario but reaching up to 4. 18±1.57°C under scenario RCP8.5. According to different scenarios announced by the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, the average annual temperature in Vietnam at the end of the 21st century will increase by 1.5-4.2°C, the average annual rainfall will increase by 10-40 % and extreme rainfall increased by 20-40% over the baseline (1980–1999 or 1986–2005 depending on the greenhouse gas scenarios used).
Associate Professor Thanh said that when the average temperature increases rapidly, the phenomenon of extreme hot weather will appear. “If 35 degrees Celsius was previously considered a high temperature level, in the future it will become the normal level with the appearance of new higher temperatures of 40 or 45 degrees Celsius,” he said. This can lead to dangerous consequences for human life and the environment if it is not found to adapt quickly enough to climate changes. Extreme heat levels, scientists warn, could severely affect agricultural yields, destroy cities and villages, and leave many areas at risk of natural disasters. increase in both number and severity. The Mekong Delta is an example of the impact of climate change and human-induced environmental changes. The report points out that the effects of climate change are likely to become the biggest threat in the second half of this century. The Mekong Delta is facing a high level of land subsidence, up to 5 cm/year in some places, mainly due to groundwater extraction (currently ~ 2.5,106 m3/day, with an annual increase of 4%/day). five). If groundwater extraction rates remain at current rates, cumulative subsidence coupled with sea level rise could cause much of the delta to sink below sea level by the end of the century. “30% of the delta is likely to be below sea level when relative sea level rise reaches 50 centimeters,” the report said.
At the GEMMES report analysis conference on March 9, scientists said that future climate change depends on the joint efforts of countries in radically reducing greenhouse gas emissions. , in accordance with the Paris agreement. The GEMMES project is a cooperation project between the Vietnamese government and the French development agency AFD (Agence Française de Développement). The report is 612 pages long on climate research conducted since 2018. This is also a detailed assessment that measures the socio-economic impacts of climate change and proposes adaptation strategies to address it. deal with these impacts in Vietnam. This report is presented at the COP26 Conference in 2021.
The program aims to support Vietnam in implementing the Paris agreement and serve as a tool for policymakers to develop long-term development plans to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Through the establishment of a network of French-Vietnamese scientists, GEMMES also helps Vietnam develop its capacity in the field of climate change research.